Battle of the Oscillators…Round 1 [0.09]

Posted on Aug. 14, 2017, 10 a.m. by System Trader Success @ [source]

In a recent article, Predictive Indicators written by John Ehlers he highlighted a unique indicator used to time market cycles. In this article, I want to put John’s Oscillator to the test by comparing it to another popular indicator used for timing to stock index markets.

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Going Live With Automation [0.10]

Posted on Aug. 7, 2017, 10 a.m. by System Trader Success @ [source]

Going live with an automated strategy is one of the coolest, but also scariest things you can do in trading.

Of course, there is a lot more to automated trading than just synching up continuous contracts and monitoring live vs. strategy positions.

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I remember reading an article at the start of 2013 that concluded, “This market reeks of euphoria.” The S&P 500 is up around 90% since then. In the financial markets, this makes it harder than ever to gauge investor sentiment.

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Every year it seems investors worry that far too few stocks are carrying the market higher.

Investors are becoming increasingly worried that a few stocks seem to be driving the returns in the S&P 500 this year.

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US Business Cycle Risk Report | 19 July 2017 [0.04]

Posted on July 19, 2017, 11:04 a.m. by The Capital Spectator @ [source]

The recent run of soft economic data inspires some pundits to claim that a new recession is brewing. As I discussed yesterday, Q2 forecasts have been trimmed in recent weeks and most projections now reflect moderate growth of roughly 2%-3% (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

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Every system developer has a list of rules and indicators that they want to test out. The problem every developer faces is narrowing down that list of rules and indicators to the select few that are best worth focusing on.

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Commercial and industrial lending in the US has been flat for the past six months, the longest stretch of sluggishness in six years.

History suggests that business and commercial loans are a lagging indicator for monitoring recession risk.

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Predictive Indicators [0.05]

Posted on July 3, 2017, 10 a.m. by System Trader Success @ [source]

Technical traders understand that indicators need to smooth market data to be useful, and that smoothing introduces lag as an unwanted side effect. Most technical analysis indicators merely document what has happened in history.

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The Scariest Chart Of All [0.09]

Posted on July 2, 2017, 10:36 p.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

Despite eight years of relentless support to equity markets by a group of central banks, in the last two and a half years there is an alarming trend, as this chart shows. What the latest steep downtrend tells us is that despite generous support from central banks, the financial media and nearly everyone involved, the market has not been able to maintain a high win rate on a daily basis but its uptrend basically depends on occasional boosts from interventions, material and verbal.

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Professor Robert Shiller Has A Sample Of Two [0.08]

Posted on June 30, 2017, 4:02 p.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

Let us face this fact: We do not have a sufficient sample of major stock market tops and dependent indicators to allow for high probability forecasts. In other words, the indicator is used to express beliefs but acts as a cover for them since there is no basis for any statistical significance at all.

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The Highly Irrelevant 50-Day Moving Average [0.06]

Posted on June 28, 2017, 7:34 a.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

But they were talking about a highly irrelevant indicator. I also believe that anyone talking about price crossing below the 50-day moving average as an important event really underestimates the intelligence of the audience.

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Low volatility has affected technical analysis indicators significantly. We also include another example and suggestions for testing indicator sensitivity to volatility changes.

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Today we talk to John Ehlers who is going to share with us a brand new indicator that he’s developed that overcomes alot of these issues.

Want a copy of Johns new indicator?

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Most indicators that attempt to time a stock market top suffer from the curse of small samples, especially after the 1990s, when a significant change in market dynamics occurred. In this sense, longer-term backtests that attempt to document some momentum effects can be misleading.

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Use the golden cross to increase your returns [0.08]

Posted on June 22, 2017, 8:17 a.m. by Blog @ [source]

Knowing exactly when to buy or sell a company’s stocks is not easy.

This indicates an increasing stock price and often results in higher trading volumes due to other investors also buying because of the golden cross.

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An Important Stock Market Chart [0.15]

Posted on June 21, 2017, 8:49 a.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

Most technical analysis indicators are used in forecasting price action but provide little information about the dynamics that drive it.

The chart below shows closing daily prices for the low volatility and high beta S&P 500 ETFs, SPLV and SPHB.

cap closing count etfs indicator reversion shows SPHB SPLV stock


US Business Cycle Risk Report | 20 June 2017 [0.05]

Posted on June 20, 2017, 10:20 a.m. by The Capital Spectator @ [source]

Economic activity weakened slightly in May, but it’s too soon to say if this is anything more than noise. The Economic Trend and Momentum indices (ETI and EMI, respectively) continue to print at moderately elevated levels, holding on to gains that unfolded in previous months.

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Before I start today’s post, I’d like to announce my plans for an economic trends newsletter.

In this post we’ll update the top 6 economic indicators as of mid June 2017.

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In this article we discuss feature generation for a long/short forex strategy.

Forex is an important asset class that can provide effective diversification, as shown in a recent article where we discussed a trend-following forex strategy.

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The Hurst indicator variant used by Price Action Lab Blog has served as a leading indicator of the 2000 and 2008 market tops and of the more recent corrections. In this article we look at current performance of this important indicator.

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