Tactical Investing Conundrum [0.09]

Posted on Aug. 8, 2017, 8:55 a.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

One of the most difficult problems of tactical investing is using timing strategies that are not biased due to special market conditions of the past. During that unique uptrend there was only one major short-term correction due to the Ruble crisis in 1998.

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The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) edged higher again in July. The projected premium for each asset class is calculated as the product of the three inputs above.

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Talking Asset Allocation & ETFs on WDYM [0.07]

Posted on July 18, 2017, 1:42 p.m. by A Wealth of Common Sense @ [source]

The current market environment is a tough one to handicap. On the other hand, the “most hated bull market of all-time” continues to charge higher, causing valuations and investor allocations to stocks to go far above their long-term averages.

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This is the third part in a series describing how to approach the creation of a new trading strategy, including everything from idea generation, universe selection, data generation, proper in/out of sample testing, necessary considerations before live trading and the eventual big decision: do I want to trade that?

For this series it has been decided that the focus will lie on the construction of a strategy based on volatility ETPs.

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Raymond James' J. Marshall Adkins invoked one of President Trump's favorite phrases to explain oil's plunge, and to excuse his bullish bias (that crude can rise to as much as $65 a barrel).

Concerns have been overblown, the Raymond James analysts argued, saying trends pertaining to U.S. inventories, production and gasoline demand have been misinterpreted.

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In a premium article last week we included a chart that we believed signaled a short-term correction. Below are two charts that reflect current price action conditions and developments.

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The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to rise in June. The basic idea is to reverse engineer expected return based on assumptions about risk.

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Research Affiliates: Are You Underweight FANMAG? Chillax! [0.00]

Posted on July 3, 2017, 5:45 p.m. by HOME @ [source]

The first half of 2017 is shaping up to be unequivocally brutal for value-oriented rebalancing strategies.

As we approach the second half of the year, the rally’s breadth, according to some, is narrowing to levels not seen since the tech bubble.

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One of the negatives of running a globally diversified portfolio of stocks for clients is that in years where the S&P 500 blows everything else away, you have to grit your teeth and show people the long-term evidence, sometimes repeatedly.

One of the positives is that it won’t be long before you’re vindicated.

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The Highly Irrelevant 50-Day Moving Average [0.06]

Posted on June 28, 2017, 7:34 a.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

But they were talking about a highly irrelevant indicator. I also believe that anyone talking about price crossing below the 50-day moving average as an important event really underestimates the intelligence of the audience.

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Most indicators that attempt to time a stock market top suffer from the curse of small samples, especially after the 1990s, when a significant change in market dynamics occurred. In this sense, longer-term backtests that attempt to document some momentum effects can be misleading.

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During the 2004–2006 period of Fed rate increases, for example, REITs posted cumulative total returns of 77.9 percent, compared with 32.5 percent for stocks and 8.6 percent for bonds. But during some periods, it has.

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Best Performing ETFs So Far This Year [0.13]

Posted on June 7, 2017, 7:45 p.m. by HOME @ [source]

They say the best perfumes come in the smallest bottles.

But the top 10 best-performing ETFs this year command only about $1.42 billion in total combined assets.

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VIX And Passive Investing Risk [0.09]

Posted on June 3, 2017, 9:53 a.m. by Price Action Lab Blog @ [source]

The CBOE volatility index® VIX® is an instantaneous measure of expected fluctuations in S&P 500 in the next 30-days. This means that the market thinks that in the next 30 days volatility will be low.

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The projected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher in May. The projected premium for each asset class is calculated as the product of the three inputs above.

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Bonds will provide an interesting case study in investor behavior in the years ahead. With interest rates at much lower levels than they have been in the recent past the same change in rates will now lead to much more volatility in bonds than it would have at the higher rates seen in the past.

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The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates again in June, a policy decision that looks set to further squeeze the Treasury yield curve.

Analyzing the implications of a flatter curve has been topical lately, although there’s no sign of a consensus at the moment.

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Foreign Bonds Pop As US Dollar Stumbles [0.02]

Posted on May 22, 2017, 10:13 a.m. by The Capital Spectator @ [source]

Foreign government bonds in developed markets roared last week, generating the strongest performances among the major asset classes, based on a set of proxy exchange-traded funds. BWX’s portfolio of foreign bonds is priced in unhedged US dollar terms.

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Shining Speculation Example in Gold Stocks [0.05]

Posted on May 11, 2017, 2:25 p.m. by Jay On The Markets @ [source]

In the minds of most “investors”, the word “speculation” is sort of a dirty word.

In Figure 2 we see a daily chart of ticker GDX that shows this ETF bouncing off of an oversold level that has highlighted at least short-term bottoms in the past.

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First US Listed European Volatility ETNs Launch [0.08]

Posted on May 5, 2017, 3:30 a.m. by HOME @ [source]

Volatility―or more specifically, the lack thereof―has been in the news recently, as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) fell below 10 earlier this month, the lowest level in a decade. The calmness in the stock market has perplexed many and sent ETFs tied to the VIX to new records.

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